California Field Poll Shows Sanders Tied With Clinton Among Whites and Singles

When single/ never married voters were asked who they’d likely be voting for, Bernie Sanders is  tied with Clinton in the latest Field Poll from California. Sanders also ties Clinton in the 18-39 age group and among white voters. Sanders not surprisingly leads Clinton by one point  when it comes to Liberals.

Field Poll

Overall the latest statewide Field Poll finds that fewer than half of likely voters in California’s June 2016 Democratic presidential primary (47%) are now intending to support former Secretary of State, U.S. Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton for President, a decline of nineteen points since May.

Over this same period Democratic voter support for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has increased nearly four-fold from 9% to 35%. The poll also shows that fewer Democrats in this state would be enthusiastic were Clinton to become the party’s nominee in the fall. Whereas in May nearly half of the state’s Democrats (46%) said they would be enthusiastic if Clinton were to become their party’s presidential standard-bearer next year, now just 37% feel this way.

By a 63% to 22% margin California’s Democratic primary voters think it would be a good thing for their party if Vice President Joe Biden were to become a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. Despite this, when Biden’s name is added to the list of possible Democratic candidates, just 15% of likely voters say they would back him. Biden’s presence in the race, however, does change the dynamics of the contest somewhat, by narrowing Clinton’s preference lead over Sanders in the state from twelve points to nine points – 40% to 31%. These are the findings from the latest statewide Field Poll conducted by telephone in English and Spanish among this state’s likely Democratic primary voters.

Poll Methodological Details: The findings come from a Field Poll completed September 17-October 4, 2015 among 1,002 registered voters in California, of whom 391 are consider likely to vote in next year’s June Democratic presidential primary election. Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter’s name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey 787 of the interviews were completed with voters on their cell phones, while 215 were completed on a landline or other phone.

Sanders strength among Whites is significant though because as the table below shows, they account for some 60% of likely voters. And although he is tied with Clinton with the young population according to the new poll, historically they haven’t voted as much as the older generation. Since they(the younger crowd) make up a third of the population in California, it’s vital that they vote this time if Bernie is to win. Another interesting point to make about this poll is that Bernie is ahead among Liberals and they make up a third of likely voters. They’ll also need to be voting.


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G.A. Casebeer

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