In the first Shady Trails Rest Home Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in the 2016 cycle, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 41 point lead over Bernie Sanders. BTW, this article is satire but it makes as much sense as the latest Iowa Poll. .
This is the first poll conducted after Clinton’s appearance before the Benghazi Committee, Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not mount a presidential campaign and McDonald’s announcing they now serve breakfast all day long.
Clinton currently garners the support of 65% of likely Shady Trails Rest Home Democratic caucus-goers who’ve had lunch with her, to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 5% and Larry Lessig has 1% of the vote. Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. She also has an edge across the ideological spectrum, leading among voters who are very liberal (57% to 34%), somewhat liberal (68% to 22%), and moderate (69% to 19%).
O’Malley does best among voters who earn more than $100,000 a year (13%), but still trails Clinton (46%) and Sanders (34%) with this group. Among current Clinton supporters, 59% say Sanders (or as the pollsters called him, “That other guy”) would be their second choice while just 14% say it would be O’Malley. Among Sanders supporters, 68% say Clinton would be their second choice, 18% would pick O’Malley.
“We now have a two-person race, but one of those competitors has just pulled very far ahead,” said Patrick Circumstance, director of the very much independent, unbiased and trustworthy Shady Trails Polling Institute of Higher Voting Awareness in West Happenstance, Iowa
Four-in-ten (40%) Shady Trails Rest Home Democratic caucus-goers say they are completely settled on the candidate they will support on February 1st. Clinton’s support appears to be more solid than the Sanders vote within the Shady Rest community.
Among Shady Trails Clinton voters who have met her and had lunch with her, 49% are completely decided and 35% have a strong preference, with the remaining 16% looking at other candidates. Among Sanders voters, just 27% are completely decided and 47% have a strong preference, with 24% looking at other candidates.
4 out of 10 Shady Trails Democrats would be either very unhappy (16%) or a little unhappy (25%) if their chosen candidate did not win. Nearly half (47%) say they would be okay if another candidate took the party’s nomination. There are no significant differences between Clinton and Sanders supporters on this question.
About 3 out of 10 (31%) Shady Trails Democratic caucus-goers report having seen a presidential candidate in person, with nearly half that number having met multiple candidates. Overall, 21% of these voters have seen Clinton in person, 16% have seen Sanders, 8% have seen O’Malley, and 2% of these Democrats admitted to owning a Donald Trump “Make American Great Again” hat.
Hillary Clinton holds a very strong 88% favorable and 8% unfavorable rating among likely caucus-goers that have personally met her and had lunch with her. Bernie Sanders also has an extremely positive rating at 77% favorable and 11% unfavorable and it’s even higher when participants were told his name rather than “That other guy”. Martin O’Malley also has positive numbers at 50% favorable and 14% unfavorable, but 36% of Iowa Democrats feel they don’t know enough to rate him. Larry Lessig earns a negative 9% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating, with 74% having no opinion.
Shady Trails Rest Home Democrats tend to be satisfied with the direction of their party. Nearly 8-in-10 (79%) say the national Democratic Party is doing a good job representing the concerns of voters like them while only 12% say it is doing a bad job. This is a far cry from the sentiments of Hawkeye State Republicans in yesterday’s Shady Trails Rest Home Other Really Important Poll – just 32% of likely GOP caucus-goers feel their national party is doing a good job while a majority of 57% say it is doing a bad job.
The Shady Trails Rest Home Poll conducted by telephone and in person from October 22 to 25, 2015 with 17 Iowa voters likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in February 2016. This sample has a margin of error of 84.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Shady Trails Polling Institute of Higher Voting Awareness in West Happenstance, Iowa.
The Shady Trails Rest Home Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Shady Trails Polling Institute of Higher Voting Awareness from October 22 – 25, 2015 with a facility wide random sample of 17 Shady Trails Rest Home voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least three of the last eight state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in February 2016. This includes 14 that were contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 3 contacted by a live interviewer during a bridge tournament, in English.
Shady Trails Polling Institute of Higher Voting Awareness is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on Rest Home registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Shady Trails office staff (field) and Shady Trail Head of Housekeeping (voter list). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 15% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 84.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.