In a new poll released on Wednesday April 13, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ message has clearly reached the millennial crowd. While this latest poll shows Clinton with a 10% lead overall, Sanders has a massive 52 point lead with voters under the age of 35. Clinton leads the over 55 category by 22 points and while the poll isn’t specific, we’ll assume they are tied with the 35 – 55 age group, although Sanders will probably have the edge there as well.
Over a third of voting age residents of the state of New York are in the 18 – 35 age group and 30% are in the 55 plus category with 39% are in the 35 – 55 range, so this breakdown gives the edge to Sanders. One must also take into consideration that most polls don’t do a very good job of contacting voters under the age of 35, so that voice is almost always under reported. It’s clear from this poll that if the millennials show up to vote in New York on April 19, 2016 like they have in the states during his current winning streak, he will win.
The Siena Research Institute poll shows that Sanders has narrowed the overall lead against former New York Senator Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic voters, however, she still has a double digit lead 52-42 percent, down from a lead of 55-34 percent on March 7 among registered Democrats. On the Republican side, Donald Trump maintains a huge lead, garnering the support of 50 percent of likely Republican voters, compared to 27 percent for Ohio Governor John Kasich and 17 percent for Texas Senator Ted Cruz, according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State presidential primary voters released today. In a four-way race in March, Trump led among registered Republicans with 45 percent, followed by Kasich and Marco Rubio at 18 percent and Cruz 11 percent.
Among likely Democratic voters, Sanders has a slightly better favorability rating, 75-20 percent, than does Clinton, at 73-25 percent. On the Republican side, Trump has a 58-38 percent favorability rating among likely Republican voters, compared to 57-31 percent for Kasich and a negative 40-55 percent for Cruz.
“While Clinton continues to hold a double digit lead over Sanders, the Brooklyn-born Sanders has tightened the race in the last month over Clinton, the twice-elected former United States Senator from New York. “The younger voters are feeling the ‘Bern’ but the question is will they come out and vote in large numbers, as older voters historically do?
“While Clinton maintains a commanding 60-31 percent lead among black voters, and extends her lead among Latino voters to 54-42 percent, Sanders has made it a neck-and-neck race with white voters. Clinton has a narrow 49-46 percent lead, down from 52-35 percent last month,” Greenberg said. “Clinton leads by 18 points with women and Sanders has a tiny two-point lead with men. Clinton leads by 13 points in New York City and 19 points in the downstate suburbs, however, upstate voters give a tiny two-point edge to Sanders.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted April 6-11, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 538 likely Democratic primary voters and 469 likely Republican primary voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. The margin of error is + 4.5 percentage points for Democrats and + 5.0 percentage points for Republicans, including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified multi-frame probability sample of both landline and cell phone telephone numbers from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. and Survey Sampling International and augmented by sample drawn from historic voters supplied by Prime New York. Republicans and Democrats were independently weighted by age, region and gender to reflect known registration patterns and historic voter turnout. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
To view the full results click HERE