opinion, Polling

Presidential Polls: Just How Accurate Are They?

 

Poll SeasonA few new polls started making the rounds recently on Reddit and Facebook and as I watched people freaking out, I remembered that is probably just the reaction some of the pollsters would like, to sway decisions and create doubt among supporters. Don’t fall for it. Also, look for even more of them to come out soon. It is a political tool, nothing more. For the sake of sanity I’m not posting the link to the polls that were talked about today. But if you see some of your friends having a near nervous breakdown over one of the polls, perhaps you can encourage them to take a deep breathe and consider the source.

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Recent polls from Iowa and New Hampshire show Bernie leading and leading big. In May Clinton held a 41 point lead but has watched that massive lead evaporate as more and more people begin to #FeelTheBern – the country seems to be resonating with Bernie’s ideas and plans to make this a better place for all of us. Make no mistake though, there are some that don’t want to see that happen.

So here we are, September 21, 2015….in the last several days Bernie is drawing 5 times the crowd as Hillary Clinton is in the same venues, has appeared on Stephen Colbert’s new show. Is picking up 10-20K new fans per day on Facebook and scores of new followers on Twitter and on top of that , mainstream media is beginning to pay more attention to the real frontrunner – But CNN came out with a poll showing Bernie actually slipping in the polls, I mean, how can that even be possible, do they really think we are that dumb? Well, yes they do.

So, even with Sanders’ meteoric rise, some of the polls show Hillary Clinton still carrying a substantial lead over Bernie but one has to remember that sometimes these polls come back with just what the pollsters want. You also sometimes have polls that are ran by people that have history with Wall Street pandering democratic hopefuls such as the case with a poll that a company called Hart Research Associates runs. BTW, they provide the polling data for at least one large and dare we say highly influential poll on NBC / WSJ(Wall Street Journal) and with  Geoff Garin  who used to be Clinton’s campaign strategist as president of the company, you’d have to have your head buried in the sand to think there’s not at least a little bit of favoritism going on there.

But there’s more: In a recent Gallup poll, it was shown that Bernie Sanders is less familiar with democrats than he was a month earlier. What on God’s green earth are these people smoking? Have we gotten to a point in this country where they feel they can blatantly throw out data like that and that people will believe it? One thing that absolutely has to be taken into account is that these weapons are all part of the game that the power brokers play but Bernie is hell bent on changing the rules and with a massive fanbase that grows larger everyday, he is having a lot of success doing just that.

One more word about polls. Most of them are weighted by more landline calls than they are cell phones. That’s important because Bernie is resonating very well with the younger crowd and a good 2/3 of them don’t use or even own a landline, so their voice is not being counted in the polls. In a 2014 poll conducted by Pew Research Center, 66% of 25-29 year old adults don’t have a landline and 60% of those 30-34 don’t either. And as we also know Bernie is the champion of the politically disenfranchised(like us) – a good amount of theses people, I’ve read upwards of 60% aren’t registered as democrat yet so they aren’t being called either.

It makes Bernie even more of a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

ISideWith.com however has a nationwide internet poll that seems to have cracked the code as to how to get people on the internet to actually take a poll. Some pollsters use internet polling but it’s always been looked at by most people with one eyebrow raised. This one is different and as you can see with nearly a million votes for the democratic presidential nominee it has a wide range of support. Click HERE to see how Bernie is doing there.

So let’s all keep doing what we are doing, it’s obviously working. Because if it wasn’t they would pay no attention to Bernie at all.

Please take a moment and “Like” The Bern Report on Facebook HERE

1 Comment

  1. Eric Radzik

    This passage needs to be corrected,
    “One more word about polls. Most of them are weighted by more landline calls than they are cell phones. That’s important because Bernie is resonating very well with the younger crowd and a good 2/3 of them don’t use or even own a cell phone*, so their voice is not being counted in the polls”
    *should say, “landline”