Presidential Polls: Just How Flawed Are They?

Poll Season

As you can see from the date in this article, this was originally published exactly one month ago today. While I’d like to say things have changed in the polls, they haven’t. In spite of Bernie Sanders’ terrific gains in literally every place that isn’t run by corporate media, most of the “national” polls show her increasing a lead that isn’t there.

Companies like CNN/ Time-Warner, NBC have huge conflicts of interest in this election. Time-Warner is one of Hillary Clinton’s biggest financial contributors, so of course they are going to try and help her. Anyone that reads their headlines has to know this is not “fair and un-biased” but we’ve gotten to a point now where they don’t even care about that. They have taken the arrogant attitude of “just try and stop us”.

The latest bunch of bologna from NBC leads with this headline:

Clinton Shows Big Lead Over Sanders in Latest NBC/WSJ Poll

Of course this headline is regurgitated many different ways, on many different websites but how many people ever actually stop to consider where they(the polls) get their data and who are the people that are contacted for these polls?  For that particular poll NBC used Hart Research Associates, a company with VERY strong ties to Clinton. In fact such strong ties that the CEO of the polling company was her co-strategist in 2008. We literally can’t make this stuff up. We’ll explain in more detail further on.

Every few days a new poll makes the rounds and people freak out. That’s exactly what they expect people to do. 

A few new polls started making the rounds recently on Reddit and Facebook and as I watched people freaking out, I remembered that is probably just the reaction some of the pollsters would like, to sway decisions and create doubt among supporters. Don’t fall for it. Also, look for even more of them to come out soon. It is a political tool, nothing more. If you see some of your friends having a near nervous breakdown over one of the polls, perhaps you can encourage them to take a deep breathe and consider the source. Ask people to read further than the headline and take a look where the numbers are coming from.

Please take a moment and “Like” The Bern Report on Facebook HERE

Polls from Iowa show Bernie doing well in that state and in New Hampshire Bernie is leading and leading big. In May Clinton held a 41 point lead but has watched that massive lead evaporate as more and more people begin to #FeelTheBern – the country seems to be resonating with Bernie’s ideas and plans to make this a better place for all of us. Make no mistake though, there are some that don’t want to see that happen.

This is what we wrote in September and like I said little has changed – except that Bernie has more “REAL” support than he did a month ago. 

So here we are, September 21, 2015….in the last several days Bernie is drawing 5 times the crowd as Hillary Clinton is in the same venues, has appeared on Stephen Colbert’s new show. Is picking up 10-20K new fans per day on Facebook and scores of new followers on Twitter and on top of that , mainstream media is beginning to pay more attention to the real frontrunner – But CNN came out with a poll showing Bernie actually slipping in the polls, I mean, how can that even be possible, do they really think we are that dumb? Well, yes they do.

So, even with Sanders’ meteoric rise, some of the polls show Hillary Clinton still carrying a substantial lead over Bernie but one has to remember that sometimes these polls come back with just what the pollsters want. You also sometimes have polls that are ran by people that have history with Wall Street pandering democratic hopefuls such as the case with a poll that a company called Hart Research Associates runs. BTW, they provide the polling data for at least one large and dare we say highly influential poll on NBC / WSJ(Wall Street Journal) and with  Geoff Garin  who used to be Clinton’s campaign strategist as president of the company, you’d have to have your head buried in the sand to think there’s not at least a little bit of favoritism going on there.

But there’s more: In a recent Gallup poll, it was shown that Bernie Sanders is less familiar with democrats than he was a month earlier. What on God’s green earth are these people smoking? Have we gotten to a point in this country where they feel they can blatantly throw out data like that and that people will believe it? One thing that absolutely has to be taken into account is that these weapons are all part of the game that the power brokers play but Bernie is hell bent on changing the rules and with a massive fanbase that grows larger everyday, he is having a lot of success doing just that.

One more word about polls. Most of them are weighted by more landline calls than they are cell phones. That’s important because Bernie is resonating very well with the younger crowd and a good 2/3 of them don’t use or even own a landline, so their voice is not being counted in the polls. In a 2014 poll conducted by Pew Research Center, 66% of 25-29 year old adults don’t have a landline and 60% of those 30-34 don’t either. And as we also know Bernie is the champion of the politically disenfranchised(like us) – a good amount of these people, I’ve read upwards of 60% aren’t registered as democrat yet so they aren’t being called either.

It makes Bernie even more of a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

ISideWith.com however has a nationwide internet poll that seems to have cracked the code as to how to get people on the internet to actually take a poll. Some pollsters use internet polling but it’s always been looked at by most people with one eyebrow raised. This one is different and as you can see with nearly a million votes for the democratic presidential nominee it has a wide range of support. Click HERE to see how Bernie is doing there.

So let’s all keep doing what we are doing, it’s obviously working. Because if it wasn’t they would pay no attention to Bernie at all.

Please take a moment and “Like” The Bern Report on Facebook HERE

G.A. Casebeer

3 thoughts on “Presidential Polls: Just How Flawed Are They?

  • October 21, 2015 at 3:08 pm
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    What’s the deal with isidewith? Sure, it shows huge Bernie support everywhere. Nice. But surely it misses folks who don’t “do” internet. It seems to be the consensus that internet folks favor Bernie while the rest favor Hillary. Why wouldn’t we think isidewith is Bernie skewed while the phone polls are Hillary skewed, leaving us clueless?

    • October 25, 2015 at 2:34 pm
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      Well one reason would be the amount of people and once again methodology. I don’t see how a pollster can call 430 people on landline telephones and that is somehow supposed to be a “national” poll. This is the year 2015 and other methods MUST be employed if we are to get a true picture of the race.

  • October 22, 2015 at 1:27 am
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    Bernie Sanders has all the qualities that make a great leader! He is humble, honest, intelligent, experienced and has the driving passion to make our country great for the children growing up in it! When one child succeeds, it effects another child somewhere up the road! Every time a child fails, it effects another child somewhere up the road! Support Bernie Sanders as the next president of the USA and watch our country prosper towards what is good in America once again!

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