News, Polling

Sanders and Clinton Within 3 Points in Last Iowa Poll – Sanders Way Ahead With Millennials

The last poll before Iowa shows that Hillary Clinton is holding onto a slight lead lead overall against Bernie Sanders in Iowa as Democrats prepare for Monday’s caucuses, though an outpouring of young voters and those who say the system is rigged could enable Sanders to pull off an upset, according to a new poll. Only 34% of the those polled are first time caucus-goers so this poll might not paint an accurate picture as to what is actually happening in Iowa.  When Obama campaigned in Iowa in 2008, 57% of the caucus-goers were there for the first time and many think Sanders will come close to those numbers.

The lead that Clinton has over Sanders is 45 percent to 42 percent, well within the margin of error. The Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers released Saturday ahead of the nation’s first nominating contest is the final look at poll numbers before the caucus. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 3 percent in the survey conducted Jan. 26-29.He could still play a big roll in this match up though by sending his troops over to the other side. In earlier polls, O’Malley supporters chose Sanders by a 2 – 1 margin over Clinton as their second choice.

One of the questions in this latest poll asked how enthusiastic the person being polled was. The answer should let you know that they were polling Clinton supporters and not Sanders supporters. She leads 73% to 69% in that category according to the poll.

It’s unclear from the methodology what the very important landline vs. cellphone ratio is. Of course most millennials don’t have landline phones so if this poll is heavily weighted by landline phones(as most of them are) these numbers look REAL good for Sanders.

ia poll

See the full poll HERE

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register
by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 602 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 602 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

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