New polling numbers released today from Public Policy Polling show Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead among the 18 – 45 year old crowd.
Clinton’s ahead overall, so why is this good news for Sanders?
PPP’s new Iowa Democratic poll, conducted in partnership with Progress Iowa, does continue to find Hillary Clinton holding a modest lead in the state. She’s at 48% to 40% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. On the surface that would appear to be good news for the Clinton camp, however if you look at the methodology, you will see a much different picture.
This is why:
As you can see from the graphic above it is weighted heavily by landline phones, just like many of the other polls. This one in fact used 80% landline users for their poll. That’s important because Bernie is resonating very well with the younger crowd and a good 2/3 of them don’t use or even own a landline, so their voice is not being counted in the polls, or at least not much. In a 2014 poll conducted by Pew Research Center, at least 66% of 25-29 year old adults don’t have a landline and 60% of those 30-34 don’t either.
More good news for the Bernie Sanders camp:
According to this poll O’Malley’s supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. This is paramount in the caucus setting. 57% of O’Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it’s Clinton.
And even more good news for Sanders:
Sanders is up 55/31 with folks who say they may yet change sides. And while Clinton’s lead is firm with established Democrats, Sanders has a massive 62/23 advantage with independents who he are banking will show up and change their registration to Democrat so they can caucus for him.
If they show up it is a clear path to victory Sanders and this incredible movement. .
Full results of the poll here