Sanders Maintains Double-Digit Lead in Iowa Among 18 – 45 Year Old Crowd

New polling numbers released today from Public Policy Polling show Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead among the 18 – 45 year old crowd.

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Clinton’s ahead overall, so why is this good news for Sanders?

PPP’s new Iowa Democratic poll, conducted in partnership with Progress Iowa, does continue to find Hillary Clinton holding a modest lead in the state. She’s at 48% to 40% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. On the surface that would appear to be good news for the Clinton camp, however if you look at the methodology, you will see a much different picture.

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This is why: 

As you can see from the graphic above it is weighted heavily by landline phones, just like many of the other polls. This one in fact used 80% landline users for their poll.  That’s important because Bernie is resonating very well with the younger crowd and a good 2/3 of them don’t use or even own a landline, so their voice is not being counted in the polls, or at least not much. In a 2014 poll conducted by Pew Research Center, at least 66% of 25-29 year old adults don’t have a landline and 60% of those 30-34 don’t either.

More good news for the Bernie Sanders camp: 

According to this poll O’Malley’s supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. This is paramount in the caucus setting. 57% of O’Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it’s Clinton.

And even more good news for Sanders:

Sanders is up 55/31 with folks who say they may yet change sides. And while Clinton’s lead is firm with established Democrats, Sanders has a massive 62/23 advantage with independents who he are banking will show up and change their registration to Democrat so they can caucus for him.

If they show up it is a clear path to victory Sanders and this incredible movement. .

Full results of the poll  here

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