It can be pretty hard these days to keep up with or even remotely understand Presidential polls. There can be a myriad of reasons why the numbers don’t seem to add up to what is happening in the real world. If you’ve been following this website for any length of time, you’ll likely remember how hard we have hammered on the idea that you CANNOT call people on landline telephones and expect that to be representative of the kind of support Bernie Sanders has. I mean you can but if you believe that stuff, you could be in for a rude awakening.
By now you know that Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire by epic proportions, in fact it was historic. No one before him has ever won by 22 points, the next highest margin of victory was 16 points by Michael Dukakis in 1988. By now you also know what a lot of pundits are saying about his campaign going forward. It is the same regurgitated spin they have used on his campaign since in began several months ago. Actually that’s not completely true, in the beginning they rarely even mentioned him. The pundits didn’t actually try beating him down until he began to look like a threat to Clinton’s coronation. I have some theories on why they do this. Sure, there is the train of thought that they are all on the take and they know who “butters their bread” but I think it is more that Clinton is a walking, talking headline and click-bait factory for years to come. They love scandals but Bernie is a “feel-good” story and we know how much of that they broadcast.
So how’s Bernie doing in Nevada? Seems like a legit question right? The pundits are lined up telling us he cannot win Nevada because of the racial diversity. They point to the last quality Nevada poll that shows HRC up by a whopping 16 points and suggest that Sanders can’t make up that kind of ground. But here’s where that theory gets completely blown out of the water. HRC was up by a higher margin, 18-20 points in Iowa, when he was 16 down in Nevada. Are you following me here?
The media seems to want to paint a picture that he has no support in Nevada and if they continue that narrative, they’ll be forced to blankly stare at the monitors on Caucus night in total disbelief. Or they could start taking his supporters seriously. This idea that no one with any brains is supporting Sanders needs to stop. There’s a wkipedia page with an impressive amount of highly politically aware people on it that seems to be just the opposite of the media story. And on a personal level, in this election, I’ve found that his supporters are very much high-information voters. They love Bernie and that he’s a good guy but they support him because of policy.
Why will Bernie Sanders win in Nevada?
Bernie will also win there because his campaign and his message works for everyone regardless of their zip code. Think Political Revolution. But aside from that, he overcame a bigger number in Iowa to virtually tie that state and lets not forget that he is only 2 points down nationally and back in October he was down by 30-ish. Also bear in mind that while Team Bernie understands that they have crushed her on the internet, they also understand that work has to happen outside of the web. A ground game if you will.
In an article from around a month ago on Politico titled “Sanders Cracks Clinton’s Nevada Firewall“, a few details were provided that show the Sanders campaign as been thinking about Nevada for a long time. The article states that Sanders has invested heavily in ad buys on English and Spanish language television and radio, spending $767,539 to date compared with Clinton’s recent $162,490 ad buy. At the time of the article, Sanders also appears to have twice as much paid staff in the state and more campaign field offices, 9 to her 7. He’s also picked up key endorsements in the state and the powerful Culinary Union that represents 60,000 members, is expected to remain neutral and offer no endorsement until after the caucuses. In 2008, the union backed Obama about three weeks before the caucuses. Make no mistake about it, Clinton was hoping and probably banking on their support for her run.
And we already know who has more volunteers, am I right?
Bernie also has the nurses in his corner, in that National Nurses United is on the ground and doing all they can to spread the love.
To think Clinton has Nevada “sewn up” like some(most) in the media would like you to believe is to not consider the entire picture. And remember, they said the same things, almost word for word about Iowa and New Hampshire.