Why Sanders Is Actually Ahead in Iowa, Few Millennials Counted in Latest Poll

Poll Season

A new poll came out this morning and while it shows Bernie Sanders in fine shape in New Hampshire with a sizable lead, the CBS poll also shows Sanders 5 points behind in Iowa. But if you dig a little deeper you will find that Bernie’s biggest block of voters (The Millennials) barely were counted at all. In fact if you take a look at the chart below you’ll see that out of the 1252 people that were polled in Iowa, 850 of them were age 45 and above. In the 19-29 age group, just 194 were counted in this latest poll.

So what does that tell us? It tells us that Bernie is in much better shape than the Main Stream Media will allow themselves to admit.

That begs the question: Just how much support does Bernie Sanders actually have within the Millennial crowd? Well it’s a difficult question to answer, since most traditional polls use landline phones and even an online poll such as this latest one by CBS apparently aren’t asking many under the age of 35 who they’d like to see get the nomination. We could look at mock elections for an answer perhaps – we have a list of them HERE.

In regards to Iowa though, Sanders does extremely well with the younger generation, he won the recent Iowa Youth Caucus in a landslide. Read HERE.

Check out the Latest Iowa Poll below:

CBS News December 2015 Battleground Tracker, Methods

Here’s what the New Hampshire poll looks like.

CBS News December 2015 Battleground Tracker, New Hampshire

G.A. Casebeer

13 thoughts on “Why Sanders Is Actually Ahead in Iowa, Few Millennials Counted in Latest Poll

  • December 21, 2015 at 3:42 am
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    I don’t agree. Considering that millennials aged 19-29 take up 194 of 1252 people interviewed, it seems appropriate. Why? only about 15% of the possible voting population comes from millennials.(194/1252=16%) I’m a huge Bernie fan but I think you got excited and overlooked this.

    • December 21, 2015 at 5:44 am
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      Even if so, you have to admit: 194 people is a very small sample, with a huge margin of error. As ever, turnout is going to the crucial factor. And that’s something that’s just very difficult to gauge via a public opinion poll.

    • December 21, 2015 at 9:47 am
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      I see 2 problems with your rationale. First millennials are the largest voting block AND are much older than the college kids so many represent them as, which make them far more likely to vote, even by old voter statistics. Second if you add up the percentage of those polled below the age of 45, the percentage does not come close to the actual size of the voter block, and weights those over 45, far too heavily. I also question, being 44, how 45 to 55 vote differently then 55 and over. I did not mention the landline issue. These are manipulated numbers. But so is every poll.

  • December 21, 2015 at 7:57 pm
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    No, this was NOT a good polling of the USA voting population by age. According to the 2010 USA population census by age, 24% ( under 18), 36.5% (ages 18-44), 39.6% (age 45+). Eliminating those under age 18, thus the eligible voting population by age is: 48% (age 18-44), and 52%(age 45+)

    Their poll of 1252 people, 68% (850) were age 45+, yet only 52% of the US eligible voting population are 45 and older. So yes, the CBS poll was definitely skewed unfairly toward the older age group.

    http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

  • December 23, 2015 at 10:34 am
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    Peculiar article, exactly what I needed.

  • December 23, 2015 at 1:38 pm
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  • December 23, 2015 at 2:07 pm
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  • December 24, 2015 at 3:15 pm
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    Here’s the Confounding Variable: “voters were contacted by phone”. Cell-only households are more difficult to measure, and are usually not a part of these polls. Especially with millennials, cell-only means hipper, online, and more astute about keeping up with non-corporate news and having a political awareness. Excluding this class throws the results towards a more conservative, less aware respondent, and skews the poll numbers. Iowa will be especially interesting.

  • December 27, 2015 at 4:16 am
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  • December 27, 2015 at 5:28 pm
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    So pollsters do nothing to adjust for how likely specific groups within the sample (e.g., millenials) are likely to vote?

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